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Drawing on my earlier research days attempting to grow mathematically simulated, intense thunderstorms on a Cray supercomputer, I can attest to the nonlinearity of the atmosphere: Very slight changes in the thermodynamic environment of a storm can have disproportionately large profoundly large impacts on the response of cloud systems, most notably the vigor and depth of cloud updrafts. What a silly, unforced error. In the study, 4162 residents of the southeastern U.S. were interviewed. The long of it: Growing up in Maplewood, New Jersey, its hard to become obsessed with the most extreme weather on the planet. I think there is a time for the discussion about forecast verification, and it is not in the midst of an evolving, dangerous event. Ironically, caps can be key ingredients in explosive storm development too. Not long after making our way into and out of town, the tornado dissipated as we continued to move east. May 29, 2022 - A potentially potent day in Northeastern Nebraska in a showdown with the cap. Monday May 20, 2019 was a high risk day in Oklahoma. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for the entire county warning area (CWA) late Thursday afternoon. Part of the 2011 Super Outbreak. The realities of false alarms. At the time of this writing, we are planning to head out next week to chase with fellow H&H chasers Travis and John. 1.8-mile-wide EF3 tornado, part of an infamous outbreak of tornadoes across western Kansas. In the delicate balance of this decision lies the potential for disconnect between forecast models and reality, and the subtle nuances of processes governing convective storms. Photogenic and tornadic mothership supercell. The OH extent of the event was largely a surprise until late in the forecast period. After having it read to me just once, I was hooked. Looking for inspiration? May 20th, 2019 SPC 1630z day tornado probabilities An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent, is expected today into this evening over portions of northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma. This did not actually happen! (624 Miles) May 12, 2022 - 80-90 MPH Straight line winds in a fast moving Derecho near Huron, SD (1585 Miles)